FY27 Media Budget Model
Monthly media allocation for TripADeal, indexed to three years of actual efficiency and corrected for known disruptions. Change any input and the year reshapes immediately.
The year
Recommendation
| Month | TTV target | Budget | Share | Required MER | Best ever | Precedent | Signal | TripADeal plan | Change |
|---|
Precedent compares the MER each month must deliver against the best that month has achieved in three years. Proven means it has been delivered before. Stretch means it has not, which reflects the level of the FY27 target rather than the way the budget is phased, and applies equally to the current plan.
Budget and targets
Efficiency vs effectiveness
Google data sources
Each source carries a monthly demand index. Switching one on discounts efficiency in months where demand was already high, so what remains is closer to media effect than market effect. Strength controls how much of that correction is applied.
Recency weights and distortion events
| Year |
|---|
| Sum of weights |
Shaded columns carry non-default weights. Each should have its event and dates recorded so the adjustment is documented and reviewable. The banner above tracks any still blank.
Actuals, locking and redeployment
Lock a month once its spend is committed or the month has closed. Locked months are removed from the pool at their actual figure and every open month is re-solved against what is left, using the same seasonal shape. Enter actual TTV as well and the model reforecasts what the remaining months have to deliver.
Manual overrides
Set any month by hand, higher or lower than the model. Leave blank and the model decides. Every other month rescales so the pool always ties.
| Period | Budget | Modelled share | TripADeal share | Difference |
|---|
TripADeal's current plan runs 47.0% in the first half. Any difference in phasing has a cashflow implication worth reviewing with finance alongside the media rationale.
TripADeal's FY27 vs FY26 tab carries annotations identifying six months where the phasing should move. This model was built independently from three years of efficiency data and reaches the same conclusion in all six.
| Month | TripADeal note | Modelled change | Agrees |
|---|
January is the clearest example. It is annotated for downweighting and currently carries 11.9% of the annual pool, the largest single month, which is what a seasonality-aware allocation is designed to resolve.
| Month | FY23/24 MER | FY24/25 MER | FY25/26 MER | Index 23/24 | Index 24/25 | Index 25/26 | Spread | Signal |
|---|
Index is that month's MER divided by that year's spend-weighted annual MER, so year-on-year growth is stripped out and the three years become comparable. A small spread means the years agree and the seasonality is probably real. A large spread means one-off campaign timing showing up as false seasonality.
Several months require an efficiency above the best that month has previously delivered. This is true of the current plan as well, and reflects the level of the FY27 target rather than the way the budget is phased.
Average returns, not marginal returns. Moving money into a month assumes its next dollar performs like its average dollar. Untested. The Mutinex MMM answers this.
Booking lag is unmeasured. Every figure buckets spend and TTV into the same calendar month. The MMM decay curves answer this.
Five months of FY25/26 carry adjusted weights. Each reflects a documented disruption in that month and should be reviewed as the events are confirmed.
Demand is not in the model. Nothing here separates a weak media month from a weak market month until the TripADeal search data lands.
Historical spend reflects earlier planning decisions. Months that were deliberately underspent will show higher efficiency for that reason, so the index is best read as directional rather than precise.
Every save is kept here, automatic or checkpoint. Restoring writes the selected version back as the current live version and adds a new entry to this list — nothing already listed is ever deleted.